Dogs in the Vineyard: Probabilities

         Dogs uses an unusual dice pool scheme. Thus, I thought I would include some analyses of the probabilities for them.


Fallout Results

         The following table predicts the fallout results for fixed sets of dice. In general, if you have a mixed set of dice (i.e. 3d4+3d6), the lower die type will increase the probability of experience (i.e. rolling a one), but they won't change the severity probabilities much. The "Average" column indicates the average result, counting an experience fallout as +1, and a long-term fallout as -1.

Fallout
Dice
Result Average XP
1 Short-Term 1 Long-Term 2 Long-Term + Inj. Gr. Inj. Death
1-7 1-7+XP 8-11 8-11+XP 12-15 12-15+XP 16-19 16-19+XP 20
3d4 31.2% 53.1% 10.9% 4.7% +0.422 57.8%
4d4 18.8% 55.1% 12.9% 13.3% +0.422 68.4%
5d4 10.9% 52.3% 12.8% 23.9% +0.396 76.2%
6d4 6.2% 47.1% 11.5% 35.1% +0.356 82.2%
3d6 10.6% 21.3% 41.2% 19.4% 6.0% 1.4% -0.441 42.1%
4d6 4.0% 13.3% 35.5% 34.0% 8.7% 4.5% -0.441 51.8%
5d6 1.5% 7.9% 28.1% 42.8% 10.6% 9.1% -0.504 59.8%
6d6 0.6% 4.6% 21.4% 47.2% 11.5% 14.8% -0.547 66.6%
3d8 4.5% 9.0% 25.0% 15.2% 33.8% 8.2% 3.7% 0.6% -0.998 33.0%
4d8 1.3% 4.2% 14.6% 16.2% 36.8% 18.9% 5.9% 2.0% -1.168 41.3%
5d8 0.4% 1.9% 8.2% 13.8% 35.0% 28.7% 7.8% 4.3% -1.248 48.7%
6d8 0.1% 0.8% 4.4% 10.7% 31.1% 36.3% 9.3% 7.4% -1.280 55.2%
3d10 2.3% 4.6% 13.1% 9.0% 29.3% 9.0% 25.7% 4.2% 2.8% -1.373 26.8%
4d10 0.5% 1.7% 6.0% 7.0% 22.6% 13.5% 32.3% 11.1% 5.2% -1.492 33.3%
5d10 0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 4.6% 15.9% 14.5% 34.6% 18.9% 8.1% -1.526 38.6%
6d10 0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 2.8% 10.6% 13.5% 34.1% 26.1% 11.4% -1.528 42.6%

 


Injury

         In case of a Fallout Total from 12 - 15, the character is badly injured. He automatically takes 2 picks from the long-term Fallout list. However, he also has to roll his Body against the Fallout total. He must be able to See the Fallout Total using 3 dice or less. So this is essentially the question of highest of 3d6 vs a target number from 12 to 15. The probabilities of success are below:

Body
Dice
Target Number (Fallout Total)
12 13 14 15
3d6 37.5% 25.9% 16.2% 9.3%
4d6 61.7% 48.8% 35.5% 23.1%
5d6 77.5% 66.1% 52.6% 37.7%
6d6 87.0% 78.2% 66.1% 50.9%
7d6 92.6% 86.1% 76.1% 62.1%
8d6 95.8% 91.3% 83.4% 71.1%

 


John H. Kim <jhkim-at-darkshire-dot-net>
Last modified: Mon Jan 23 21:29:08 2006